The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority have released information showing that Nigeria’s modular refineries contributed a mere 2.37% of the country’s diesel needs from November 2025 to January 2026.
Operational Status
According to NMDPRA’s data, only 3 refineries: Waltersmith, Edo, and Aradel refineries were active, producing an average of 393,000 liters of diesel daily—489,000 liters in November, 392,000 in December, and 297,000 in January. OPAC and Duport stayed offline due to issues like crude shortages. Capacity use varied: Waltersmith at 61-63%, Edo peaking at 91% before declining, and Aradel dropping to 29% in January despite leading output volumes.
Demand Coverage
National diesel use averaged 17 million liters daily (15.4 million in November, 16.4 million in December, 19.2 million in January), so modular plants covered 3.18%, 2.39%, and 1.55% respectively by month. None produce petrol, limiting their role amid reliance on Dangote Refinery (5.6-10.9 million liters daily) and imports (14.1 to 8.1 million liters daily).
Consumption Benchmarks
The NMDPRA’s January report also showed that actual consumption of key petroleum products exceeded official 2026 benchmarks. Petrol truck-out averaged 60.2 million litres per day, above the 50 million-litre benchmark. Diesel consumption surpassed its 14 million-litre benchmark by 37%, while aviation fuel and cooking gas consumption also exceeded their respective targets.
Challenges and Calls for Support
Capacity utilization among the active refineries was inconsistent. Waltersmith averaged about 61–63% utilization, Edo peaked at over 91 per cent in November before falling, and Aradel’s utilization dropped to around 29% in January despite relatively strong output in earlier months. Overall average utilization across the three facilities stood at about 51%, suggesting room for expansion if operational challenges are addressed. Notably, none of the modular refineries currently produces petrol.
In contrast, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery played a far more significant role in diesel supply, delivering 5.6 million litres per day in November, 5.8 million in December, and 10.9 million in January. Diesel imports also remained substantial, averaging 14.1 million litres per day in November, 10.8 million in December, and 8.1 million in January—underscoring Nigeria’s continued reliance on foreign supply.
The findings reflect mounting demand pressures in the downstream sector, even as modular refineries struggle to scale operations due to feedstock shortages, funding gaps, and equipment limitations.
The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has urged the government to support local refiners by ensuring access to crude under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation and by establishing a Midstream Refinery Development Fund to finance critical equipment such as reformers and desulphurization units.
CORAN argues that while large operators like Dangote can secure crude through private arrangements, smaller refiners face systemic constraints that limit their growth and contribution to national energy security.
